Which conferences are hot at the right time?
I break it down round by round, and again for a total score all rounds.
Scoring: I had to change scoring. I intended it to be a “per team” value, since some conferences have 8 bids and others 2. Trying to avoid sheer volume from driving the winner. Scoring in a nutshell; add up the wins, give a bonus if an upset win, subtract points for an upset loss, and divide score by how many teams are playing in that round.
What I show
1. Raw totals: bids, wins, losses, and % of upsets (win or lose). One thing I like to look at is wins per bid. The Raw total will show ho many total wins so far int he tourney, and you can see if bids are pulling their weight. Example: A-10 has 7 wins from 5 bids. Mountain West has 2 wins from their 5 bids.
2. Conference Score Card Cumulative: A-10 was the big winner in RD64 (6-0), but in the RD 32 they went 1-5, with a pair of upset losses. Their total score will be adding both rounds point totals together. As teams advance (or disappear) the point totals change. In RD32, Pac-12 had only 2 wins, but they were both upset wins, so that is factored into their score.
3. Per Round Performance: How the selected conferences did per round. I didn’t grab all conferences. CUSA and MVC were left off, MVC did the best between those 2.
Another metric to watch: Another thing to note is “% of the field”. This helps give you an idea of how a conference is doing. They get % of the field as bids, and they either maintain, or fall behind as the tourney progresses. This will help stop the over generalized “they get all those bids, and all they do is lose” arguments. A conference cannot expect all their teams to advance to the Sweet 16, so this alongside Upset Win (UW%) / Upset Loss (UL%) help make sense of that. Upset %’s are “when they win, X% are upsets wins”, and the same goes for losses.
Raw Totals (win/loss & Upset %’s).
Conference Score Card (RD 64 + RD 32)
Round 32 Resume
Round 64 Resume
Provided by ASAP Sports:
COACH PITINO: Obviously, it’s a real
special night for University of Louisville. The final
minute of play, first thing I thought of is what an
incredible group of guys I’m coaching. Then I
thought how happy I was for my family, and then
immediately I thought of Dave Gavitt and what he
formed, and all of us in some way or another
flourish because of Dave Gavitt.
This was a special, special night. First
half, I had to jump our guys pretty hard at halftime
because we were — our defense wasn’t great
because our offense is quick shooting, and we’re
not a quick shooting team. So we are putting
ourselves in a hole by not moving the basketball
working high-low. Gorgui was the facilitator of the
game because, when we got the ball high,
Montrezl with his length, he has a tremendous
wing span, could obviously do much more than
Chane Behanan and taking a step and going up.
Peyton Siva now goes in a class with
Patrick Ewing. Just a tremendous game for this
young man. I told the assistant coach before,
Peyton hadn’t played well against Syracuse. I
guarantee he plays well tonight. Very few young
men in this business that I’ve coached is like him.
I’m really, really excited. Very sentimental
about what happened tonight. Tremendous grip by
our guys because in the first half we were shooting
ourselves in the foot, and for a veteran team, we
shouldn’t have done that. To go out in the second
half and score 56 points off good offense, and our
defense came because of the good offense.
Q. Rick, I know last year when you
guys won, you cut down the nets. You didn’t
tonight. Any specific reason why.
COACH PITINO: You know, not
particularly. I just thought we had four goals going
into this year. One was to win the regular season,
and we shared it with great teams. Two was to win
this championship. Three was to get a very high
seed. And four was to win a National
Now, we don’t presume at all that we can
get there. We just wanted to savor, if we ever do
get there, that one moment.
Q. Rick, in all your times coaching
college games, have you ever seen a game
swing like that with defensive pressure?
COACH PITINO: Well, in order to get that
type of defensive pressure, where you’re
conditioning, where all that hustle is a factor, you
have to take good shots, and we took good shots
in the second half. It was untypical of Peyton and
Luke taking some of the shots.
Like I said at halftime, we were down 16 to
Memphis on the road in a hostile crowd. This was
not as hostile, but this was a road game tonight. I
was trying to find red, and we found about 1,500,
2,000. But to play like this, I had all the confidence
in the world.
Peyton said, you doubt us. I said, I didn’t
doubt you. I really didn’t. But I had to wake you
guys up. Wake you guys up. If I swear they would
have heard a lot of cuss words. Thank God I don’t
Q. Coach, Coach Boeheim said that
when they were up by 15, that’s when you
really put the pressure on. If the score was a
little lower, would it have been the same?
COACH PITINO: We just got after it more,
trapped more, but because we were taking so
many outside jump shots, we couldn’t get the press
on. Press is only a factor.
First half we shot such a low — we shot 26
percent with half of those not being good shots.
And then the second half we started working the
high post and going high-low, and then it opened
up the corners, and then we started getting our
pressure on. You can only press on a make. That
was the key, offense to good defense.
Q. Coach, could you talk about the play
of Montrezl. When you were down 16, he got
that basket and tried to get the crowd and
everybody else with his hands.
COACH PITINO: You know, I’m always
telling the guys stories. It’s like I put them on my
knees and tell them stories all the time.
I was telling them a story about at
Providence, we’re going, can’t beat Georgetown,
we beat them at the buzzer, and there I stood with
John Thompson, ready to go at it with him, and I
pointed at his naval, and I said, look out, big guy.
Then they just wasted us senior night by 30, in the
Garden by 30. And I said to the guys, don’t worry
about it. We’re never going to see Georgetown
again. We’re playing great.
Then of all things, who do we face?
Georgetown in Louisville. As I told them the story,
you know, the most unlikely hero, Delray Brooks
and Billy Donovan were carrying us. The most
unlikely hero, Darryl Wright a man off the bench
wins the MVP of the whole region. You never
know in college basketball who’s going to step up,
and tonight Kevin Ware, and in the tournament
Stephan Van Treese, and tonight he takes over the
backboard, takes over the game, and Peyton and
Gorgui allows him to do it with great passing.
That’s the beauty of college basketball.
You can pretty much pencil in LeBron or Dwyane
Wade or somebody in the pros. But in college
basketball, you never know, and tonight this young
man gave us a tremendous lift.
Q. Peyton, second year in a row you
guys played great in New York. You won ten in
a row. To head into the NCAA Tournament the
way you guys are playing right now means
PEYTON SIVA: I mean, we have a lot to
work on, as you saw in the first half. We didn’t
really communicate well on the defensive end. We
have a lot of things to improve on, but I think for
the most part our guys really bought in the second
half of playing defense and not allowing our
offense to affect us.
For us to come back from down 16 really
meant a lot and really meant that it showed a lot of
heart for the team. For Montrezl really to step up
like he did today, just means, like Coach P said,
someone on our team will step up big.
That’s the thing about this team. We don’t
need a lot of points from me or a lot of points from
Russ. On any given night, it can be somebody has
a big night. That’s what Coach P has been
pressing. It really showed tonight for Montrezl
going out there and knocking down all of his shots.
Q. Rick, you said something about in
all of the final fours you’ve been to, you really
felt confident, and some others not so much.
Where are you confident here?
COACH PITINO: I had seven or eight first
round NBA draft choices. So you should be
confident. But I’m humble enough at my age to
understand that Duke and Missouri had great runs
last year, great teams, and they lost in the first
I’m not overly confident in anything except
just taking care of each practice and each game.
That’s what I want these guys to do is get better. If
it happens, it happens for this basketball team. I
know one thing. You’re not going to find 13 nicer
Even when we lost in the first round three
years ago, I’ve had the greatest time of my life
coaching these guys. Not for a long time. They
listen to every word you say, yes, sir, yes, sir, yes,
sir. It’s just an incredible experience to coach
Q. Rick, I’m not a psychologist, but has
this week been as emotional as I think it has
been for you with Jack Curran and this being
the last —
COACH PITINO: I think for Jim
(Boeheim), me, Jay Wright texted me tonight and
said, hey, good luck. It’s only fitting that you and
Jim are in the finals. I really appreciated that. It’s
Jim and I both know — we hope we can
coach as long as we can coach, but we’re never
going to do with in the Big East. To come back like
that tonight, it shows tremendous heart. I’m really
excited for them they can be part of basketball
history. I’m really happy the basketball history took
place in Madison Square Garden. And I’m really
excited we can do it in Dave Gavitt’s memory and
now Jack Curran for Russ Smith.
Q. I wonder if you could share with us,
you were very exuberant out there, what were
the emotions you were feeling, and did you
anticipate you could have a role in tonight’s
MONTREZL HARRELL: I came in the
game just being prepared for whatever coach
needed me to do. When I got on the floor, I just
wanted to help guys with a big lift. I was going all
over the place, trying to get rebounds, either
offense or defense.
These guys looked for me, and I just tried
to finish for them. I just came out hard and played
my heart out.
COACH PITINO: By the way, your free
throws looked great. Even the ones you missed
MONTREZL HARRELL: Thanks, coach.
Q. Peyton, you looked a little
pleasantly surprised maybe with the MVP. Was
that the case, and what did it mean to get done
PEYTON SIVA: To be honest, I didn’t
think I would get the MVP. I wasn’t really focused
on it. I just wanted to get the win. Syracuse has
been my Kryptonite for the last couple of years,
and I didn’t think we’d play them again.
Coach had the confidence to leave me in
the game this time, and I didn’t want to let him
down. My shots weren’t falling, so I tried to attack,
and Montrezl finished a lot of my assists. Even
though I get hit a lot on defense, I just want to point
out to Coach P, I got a block tonight.
COACH PITINO: Thanks for pointing that
Q. Peyton, can you describe how
Louisville, the strategy and the way that the
press gets applied, and can you also describe
what you see in the other team when you guys
are feeling it?
PEYTON SIVA: Our press is pretty much
like controlled chaos. Russ, when he got in the
game, he kept telling us, we’re going to press.
We’re going to press. We’re just going to run and
trap, run and trap, and Coach P is like, no, you’ve
got to do it in a smart way. For a minute there, we
were running around the court with our head cut off
and got a couple of steals.
For the most part, we tried to pressure
their guards. Michael Carter-Williams did an
excellent job handling the pressure, but at the end
we tried to wear him down, wear him down. And it
took effect later in the game. They were hot in
three-point shooting in the first half, second half
not so much, and that was really big for us.
Q. Peyton, to follow that, what was the
moment in the second half when you knew
your defense was in their heads?
PEYTON SIVA: I think at one point in the
game, we had two or three steals or turnovers right
off the back, and we scored off of those three
possessions. For a team, everybody really
stepped up at that point. Luke, you know, he really
showed his energized self. Russ is always
energized. Even Montrezl was running back and
getting blocked shots.
For us to really battle like that, it really
shows a lot. We’ve got to continue that momentum
and continue to play that way.
Q. Coach, with ten straight wins, is this
enough to be the ones in the NCAA
COACH PITINO: I would say probably.
It’s not a big deal. I would say we’re going to be
the Number 1 seed of the number ones, but if not,
it’s no big deal.
Last year we had the number one toughest
schedule in the nation, this year we’re top ten.
Won a lot of games, won two Big East
championships. So probably, but it really is not a
big deal for us. We’ll let the committee decide on
Q. Coach, how did you get down? Was
it something you could pinpoint to Syracuse?
COACH PITINO: We were just taking bad
shots. I think — you need length to play against
Syracuse. That’s where this young man came in.
You’ve got Gorgui and him. And then we made a
lot of mistakes by Southerland. We needed to stop
any attempts by Southerland, and we didn’t switch
I think by not walking through today, and
we got them off their feet because we were
pressing a lot, it may have been a mistake by me —
PEYTON SIVA: No.
COACH PITINO: But I think just good
offense led to good defense. Poor offense led to
Q. How do you prepare for the NCAAs
with that, with this experience?
COACH PITINO: We’re going to go over
the film. We watch a lot of film, and we’re going to
go over the film and show the guys some of the
mistakes. We try to confuse, create total chaos,
and but we got to do it in a smart way, and we did
it in a very smart way offensively and defensively in
the second half. That’s a lot of points to score
Q. Coach, tonight in the awards
ceremony, Peyton Siva’s name was mentioned
with Big East royalty in terms of Patrick Ewing,
and I saw your face. Your eyes got wide when
that was said. This kind of performance in New
York, what can you say about that?
COACH PITINO: I don’t know — why I was
so startled, I didn’t know only two players had ever
won that. So for him to get it, this is a young man
that is really, really special. Really special.
When I said about — it was interesting
what I said about Billy Donovan and him being the
two best people I ever met in my life, ever
coached, when I yell at him, I go home and feel
terrible. That bothers me that I do that. So every
time I get on him, I walk away, and I feel bad about
So I’m going to still do it though.
PEYTON SIVA: Probably will.
COACH PITINO: It’s really special,
though. If anybody deserves it, it’s him. It’s an
incredible thing. We had a senior night that was so
amazing because I started coaching in Hawaii,
where every recruit that came in got little leis and
everything. And all of a sudden, Peyton gives a
speech to the crowd, and 36 Samoans come onto
the court with leis for the whole team. I’ve never
seen that in my life.
For me working in Hawaii and seeing that
again and the love the Samoan give, brought me
back to 1974. PEYTON SIVA big family.
Incredible. Incredible. Thank you very
much for the coverage. We appreciate it.
JOHN PAQUETTE: Thank you, Louisville.
FastScripts by ASAP Sports.
It takes about 30 seconds to start.
Ahead of the Notre Dame game, let’s take a look at some TVT metrics, including last night’s Nova game, and how it changed the Last 5.
Then, below observations, I look at the last 2 times we met Notre Dame, and make a player average to see who might be having a big game tonight based on those meetings. Most college games are about matchups. It will be interesting to see if it holds.
- Welcome back Blackshear, 2 solid games back to back. #2 most productive last night per minute played.
- SVT 4th most productive per minute against Nova, team leading 8 rebounds helped.
- After being top 3 most productive all season long, Behanan in Last 5 has dropped to #6. Still not worried. He looks pretty loose based on him giving bunny ears to the freaking former president.
- Dieng still #1 most productive in Last 5, despite his season low 8th place finish against Nova.
We played ND twice. Below I avg’d the two meetings, then sorted players by most – least productive. Will be interesting to see if this holds. Based on the forecast: the Front Court stars – back court manages the game.