About CrumsRevenge

Former D1 scholly athlete. Former coach. I make Videos, take pictures, and obsess all things Louisville. If you are a Card-o-Holic, you can follow me here: Twitter - @CrumsRevenge; Instagram - CrumsRevenge.

Louisville Guard Russ Smith Cuts the Nets on the Floor of the Georgia Dome following his Cardinals victory over Michigan in the 2013 National Championship game. Russ wears a shirt of him and his high school coach (late) Jack Curran. Picture by Mark Blankenbaker
FINAL TVT: OOC, Conference, Post Season, Total Season

2013 is in the Books.  We won the whole damn thing.  Not bad.

I have the final TVT ”top 5″ for the team broken down into 4 parts; Total Season, OOC, Conference, and Post Season Tourneys.  Some of the results might surprise you.

History

I started TVT, because I saw many fans devaluing Luke Hancock solely due to his shooting early in the season.  We now know how hurt he was, but the reality was – he was chipping in quite a bit, just not with the 3 ball.  He sure chipped in the 3 ball at the end of the year, but TVT was born.

I evaluate most statistical categories (good and bad), made a formula that takes the net of this statistics, and divide it by minutes played.  A player gets a value, which essentially means: “When I play for 1 minute, I net the team ‘X’ amount of positive contributions”.

Note:  I find it interesting to see how players move depending on the segment of the season:  Total Season, Out Of Conference schedule (OOC), Conference league play (Conference), and Post Season Play (BET, NCAA). 

I also tracked the team average for each leg of the season to see if we were rising or falling in production averages as the season progressed.  As we all witnessed – in the post season, the averages freaking skyrocketed to levels not seen all season long.  It was beautiful.  That is peaking at the right time.

 

Final Season Rankings

I tracked 37 of our 40 games – not all played those full 37 (example, Gorgui was out for 7).

Team average: 0.48, which means that the team average – everyone factored in for all 37 games, averaged about 1 net positive statistic just slightly over 2 minutes played.  That is a pretty good score

Full Season Top Performer:  Gorgui Dieng (0.65) 

Mr. Consistent delivering night in and night out.  We will miss Gorgui next year.

Next 4: Smith (0.63), Behanan (0.58), Harrell (0.57), Siva (0.43)

Some usual suspects, and how nice to see Frosh Harrell in the mix for top performing “per minute played”?  37 games of tracking, and he is in top 5.

 

OOC ONLY Final Rankings

I tracked 10 of Louisville’s OOC games.  This is how the team fared in those games.

Team Average: 0.53, an uptick compared to the entire season, not uncommon.  The Big East is a battle, and we had some weak RPI’s in the OOC (mixed in with some toughies). Averaged about 1 net positive statistic just slightly less than 2 minutes played.  That is above our season average, a strong OOC run for the cards.

OOC Top Performer:  Russ Smith (0.81)

Whoa, Russdiculous blew the roof off the competition in the OOC schedule, and it helped “re-brand” the meaning of Russdiculous, and put him in the POY discussion with great games again some tough OOC matchups.  This is a moderately insane score.

Next 4:  Behanan (0.69), Dieng (0.63), Harrell (0.63), Siva (0.58)

None of the names on this list should surprise you.

 

 

Conference Final Rankings

I tracked all 18 games.  This is how the team fared in those games.

Team Average: 0.48, Hit the season Average.  Hardest run of the regular season not surprised to see a drop in production compared to OOC, averaged about 1 net positive statistic just slightly over 2 minutes played.  That is a pretty good score.

Conference Top Performer:  Dieng (0.84) 

You can see why Dieng was the season’s leader.  Averaging an extremely high score over a period of 18 games.  Well done, big fella.

Next 4:  Behanan (0.67), Smith (0.62), Harrell (0.56), Blackshear (0.57)

Behanan was bigger in conference play than people seem to remember, and the Frosh Harrell remains on the list.  I guess we will keep him on the team.  Blackshear finally shines for the team, and rounds out the top 5.

 

Post Season Final Rankings

I tracked all 9 post season games. This is how the team fared in those games.

Team Average: 0.63, That is not a typo.  The team went nuts, from the starting 5, to the last sub in.  They out produced their efforts at a higher level than any point in the season, playing the toughest opponents.  Wow.  The team was averaging 1 positive net statistic well inside of 2 minutes.

Post Season Top Performer:  Dieng (0.70), SVT (0.70)

Many thought Luke would be near the top, but the reality is everyone on the team produced at a high level, so everyone moved up together and not as many changes in the order.  SVT benefited hugely from a few production packed minutes where he only played 2 or 3 minutes, so consider Dieng your winner, and I will toss SVT out of the top 5.  He did play well for us though, and should be noticed, that is why I listed him above for peeps to see.

Next 4: Smith (0.63), Harrell (0.67), Behanan (0.56) Hancock (0.55).

The “next 4” all return for the Cards.  That makes me happy.  Siva finished 6th, but his contributions are not just measured on a stat sheet.  He will go down as one of the great floor/team leaders ever.  His calming effect on the team, and his ability to turn a team into a brotherhood should always be remembered.

 

Final Thoughts

We are returning 6 of the top 8 TVT leaders.  We lose #1, Gorgui Dieng, that is a factor.  We are replacing our most productive player “per minute played” with an unknown commodity (Mangok), a reserve (SVT), or potentially a power forward (Harrell).  I personally do not think Rick would play Behanan and Harrell together because the PF spot is a crucial one, and we don’t have a reliable replacement on the boards if they both get into foul trouble.  I believe they will remained hitched to keep production steady.  I think we will need to “out shoot” our lost production from Gorgui, and with the shooters we are adding – we might shoot better than our play on the court, and that is ok.  As a coach much smarter than me once said “Shooting will hide a multitude of sins”.

A new year, a new challenge – is there anyone you would rather figure the new puzzle out than Hall Of Fame Coach Rick Pitino?

Not me.

Go  Cards.

 

 

pitino godfather
Tribute Video: P I T I N O

A good friend of Pitino ”hired” me to make him a video (as a surprise).  I say “hired” because there is no way I would charge to make a video for the man who brought us a national title.

He wanted some shining moments, and YES a Pitbull song.  I love that the Pitino-Pitbull bromance is a real thing.

They had a dinner last night, set up a projector and let the good times roll.

There was too much to use, and even much hard to find, but i think it turned out pretty good for the man who made good on his promise to Louisville fans when he was hired.

That promise was: “Return Louisville to National Prominence”.

That he did.

Hope you like.

Tribute Video: Rick Pitino from @CrumsRevenge on Vimeo.

Godfather
The Godfather is Back

The Godfather is back.

No horse heads this time.  Rick is having fun. Certainly somebody woke him up, and like it or not, it’s John Calipari.

The win trend since Calipari was hired at UK is impressive: 20 wins, 25 wins, 30 wins, 35 wins.  40 isn’t going to happen next year folks, but 30’s likely.  The last two years ended in a final four and a title.  However, no NIT first round flameout for the Cardinals next year.  In fact, they are widely considered top 3 again, and will challenge for a repeat title.  Unbelievable.

Last year I ran a series on Rick and Calipari over their careers.  This one will be focused more on Rick, and how the instate rivalry turned the heat up (for the better) for the Cards program.

When Calipari was hired at UK, here were my first two thoughts;

  1. “I hate Calipari, he cheats”.  Ironically, the same thing Matt Jones said for Calipari’s tenure at Memphis, but he of course “changed his mind”.
  2. “Pitino and Calipari’s ego’s are too big for 1 state; this is going to be good”.

The misconception UK fans have is Cards fans hate Calipari because of Kentucky.  The reality is – Calipari has irritated folks since Umass (a little) and Memphis (a lot) did him no favors.  In fact, some might like Kentucky more if they had a likeable coach, like Tubby Smith – who also won a title and NEVER went to the NIT, but I digress.

When Pitino was hired, Cards fans had high expectations.  A host of issues suppressed that.  Rick was signing top recruits, but none showed up.  Telfair, Jones, Johnson, and more went straight into the pros.  No “one and done” rule in effect.  That was one massive change for Rick’s recruiting strategy from the 90’s when he left for the Boston Celtics.  Another, while the Cards fan base had high expectations for the program - they don’t hang out on Pitino’s lawn if Louisville doesn’t compete for a title each year, so some thought he was getting too comfortable.

Prior to Calipari being hired, Rick Pitino had serviceable success.  Falling short of what Cards fans expected at his hiring, but certainly nothing to be ashamed of.  He took a team with a losing record from Denny Crum, and turned them into a national player (and gave them their first Final Four since 1986) in 4 years.

HIs numbers were strong, but tourney success wasn’t always there.

Rick Pitino 2001-2009 (8 years)

  •  Average Record:  25 – 9.1
  • Average Tourney Wins/yr: 1.5 (12 over 8 years, I don’t count NIT).
  • NCAA Finishes: 6 (Rd 32, Rd64, Final Four, Rd32, Elite 8, Elite 8).
  • NIT Appearances: 2 (Sweet 16, Final Four)
  • Grade:  B -, better than Denny’s final years, but come on, we hired Rick Frickin’ Pitino.

Then something happened, John Calipari was hired, and the fire was stoked.

Calipari was handed 5 star recruits in bunches.  Rick had to make a change, and he did.  Started a new brand “Louisville First”, and started picking up assistant coaches with lighter coaching experience, but more recruiting ties.  The end result – the foundation Cards fans enjoy today.

Rick:  2010-2013 (4 years)

  •  Average Record:  27.5 – 9.5 (avg SOS; 8.5)
  • Average Tourney Wins/yr: 2.5 (10 over 4 years)
  • NCAA Finishes: 4 (Rd64, Rd64, Final Four, National Champs)
  • NIT Appearances: 0
  • Five Star Players: 2
  •  Grade: A, no A+ with 2 first round exits, but Louisville is officially a problem for the foreseeable future.

Looks like next year, the Cards will be in most ranking services top 3, and challenge for the Final Four – AGAIN.  3 in a row.  Now that is the Pitino we hired.  Recruiting is buzzing, the team is swarming, and the wins are mounting.

What did Calipari’s profile look like during this time frame?  Not much different.

Calipari:  2010-2013 (4 years)

  • Average Record:  30.7 – 6.5 (avg SOS; 33.5)
  • Average Tourney Wins/yr: 3.2 (13 over 4 years)
  • NCAA Finishes: 3 (Elite 8, Final Four, National Champs)
  • NIT Appearances: 1 (RD32)
  • 5 star Players: 12
  • Grade:  A, barely over A –. Too much other success around the NIT flame out to grade them lower.  Marches into next year as a contender for the title.

Calipari’s 4 year UK profile isn’t much better than Ricks despite having 10 more 5 star players and a lower Strength of Schedule (33 avg compared to Cards 8).  Honestly, that could be underachieving – what if Rick had the easier schedule, and 10 more 5 star players?  Another thing missing from Cards profile?  No NIT, and certainly not spending it with a first round loss Robert Morris.

2 styles, same success, and it looks like neither is letting off the gas.  Should be fun next year, and I am thrilled with the foundation Rick is building for the future.  National pundits are praising, recruits are lining up, and it is starting to feel like the 80’s all over again.

Game on.